Counting Jews, whether for demographic research or for communal policy planning, is a difficult task. The Jewish community is highly dispersed. Moreover, Jewish community boundaries have become both permeable and amorphous. It is not easy to clearly identify who is a Jew and who is not. The Institute for Jewish & Community Research conducted population research that included a number of methodological tests that would help obtain a more accurate population count than past studies. We believe that Jewish demographic research will require a major retooling to account for a highly assimilated and elusive population.

Our estimate of 6.0 million Jews includes the same categories included in other population estimates: those who say Judaism is their religion; also those who had a Jewish background (parent or upbringing) or view themselves as ethnically Jewish AND specify no other current religion. We did not include Jews for Jesus. We did, however, count children who are being raised primarily as Jews, even when they are being raised in mixed households practicing Judaism and another religion. Our recently completed research is a sociological assessment, not a religious one. Nevertheless, categorizing each respondent is a judgment call. Individuals may call themselves Jewish, while religious leaders may think otherwise, and vice versa.

The Jewish population could be as large as 6.6 million under the definitions above, and could be even larger if the parameters for counting Jews are reconsidered. Our methodological tests show that some Jews fail to disclose Jewish identity or background, suggesting that some degree of “Jewish denial” exists. Further work is needed to better estimate its magnitude, and to demonstrate that surveys which do not account for the phenomenon might understate the size of the Jewish population by 5-10%.

We also found more Jews by asking a series of questions about ethnicity before addressing religion. This sequence seemed to make respondents feel more comfortable, as opposed to plunging into the more sensitive area of religion. Many American Jews think of themselves more in ethnic and cultural terms than in religious ones, and may be more comfortable talking about that aspect of their identity. By probing ethnicity, we identified Jews among those who gave their religion as "None," "Atheist," "Agnostic" or "Other." Experience teaches us that many Jews say: "I am not a religious Jew or a practicing Jew. But I feel Jewish. I am a cultural Jew." Our survey found many such people.

There were also other important findings in our 2001-02 survey. Beyond the 6.0 million Jews, we found a population of some 2.5 million adults who are not Jewish but who have a connection to Judaism or the Jewish community. Some are married to Jews and feel identified with the community. Others volunteer a sense of affinity based on intellectual or emotional identification with Jews and Judaism. The third group, some 4.2 million, consists of U.S. adults who have a Jewish grandparent or great-grandparent. Adding all these together gives us a total of more than 11.3 million American adults who claim a connection to Jewish life (12.7 million people counting Jewish children).

There is great significance in the existence of a sizeable non-Jewish population that is close to the Jewish community in variety of ways. They might not fast on Yom Kippur, but they could be expected, for example, to vote instinctively against a political candidate whom they see as anti-Semitic — that is, threatening to themselves or to the community with which they have a connection.

Publications

Tobin, Gary A. and Sid Groeneman. Surveying the Jewish Population in the United States - Part 1: Population Estimate, Part 2: Methodological Issues & Challenges. San Francisco: Institute for Jewish & Community Research, 2004.

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In Process

Tobin, Gary A. Strategies for Growth in the Jewish Community. San Francisco: Institute for Jewish & Community Research, To be published in 2006.

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Studies of Religious Identity

Recent decades have witnessed significant changes in religious belief and identity. The social upheaval of the 1960s gave rise to individualistic spirituality, serious questioning of traditional beliefs and doctrines, and, in some cases, repudiation of organized religion. Spurred also by the increase in intermarriage, new religions and religious practices have arisen, sometimes from a melding of older forms. New immigration streams from non-Western nations and Latin America have added to the growth of diversity in American religion.

Many today are not content to continue in the pathways of their parents and grandparents. Instead, they are open to experiment with alternatives and quick to switch allegiances. While levels of formal affiliation might not be significantly diminished (compared with actual religious practice), people are not tied to religious ideologies to the extent that they once were. Incidences of denominational switching, blending, and the creation of new institutions characterize the contemporary American scene.

This research quantifies these changes and trends. Students of religion have been well aware of recent trends, and much has been written about the changing nature of religion in America from numerous perspectives and divergent assessments. Nevertheless, there have been few attempts to systematically examine the prevalence of these emergent forms of religious expression: What demographic and religious groups are being affected and how much?

These studies examine religion, ethnicity, and religious affiliation in America, with an emphasis on denominational switching, multiple religious identities, blending of religions and the creation of new denominational categories. We also look at the intersection of religion and ethnicity.

The research on religious identity:

1) explores the extent of religious switching that has occurred among United States adults relative to the tradition(s) in which they were raised;
2) examines how many are currently practicing multiple religions — either because a spouse or other family member has chosen a different primary religion, or as a deliberate choice to seek spiritual meaning in more than one faith community;
3) documents the degree to which Americans have increasingly decided to identify with no religion or tradition; and
4) describes and profiles the population of adherents to the major churches and denominational categories.

Publications

Tobin, Gary A. and Sid Groeneman The Decline of Religious Identity in the United States. San Francisco: Institute for Jewish & Community Research, 2004.

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